September 07, 2007
View From Lodi, CA: New Report Shows Immigration
Creating Population Explosion
By Joe Guzzardi
During the
passionate arguments this summer about immigration
and whether or not
amnesty should be granted to illegal aliens, one
subject was lost in the din. Few mentioned the impact
that immigration has on
America’s population.
Proponents of more immigration
claim that
businesses,
workers and
consumers benefit. Those opposed counter that mass
immigration creates
sprawl, congestion and a
diminished quality of life.
But whichever camp you align
yourself with both sides agree with the obvious—that
more immigration means a
larger population.
The non-partisan Washington,
D.C.-based
Center for Immigration Studies, a think tank
focusing exclusively on immigration’s impact on the
U.S., has issued a new report by Dr. Steven Camarota
titled
100 Million More: Projecting the Impact of Immigration
on the U.S. Population, 2007-2060.
Listen to Camarota discuss his
report on PHXNews
here.
Using Census Bureau data as its
source, the report found that:
But if the annual level of net immigration were
reduced to 300,000, future immigration would add 25
million people to the population by 2060, 80 million
fewer than the current immigration level adds.
However, since net immigration has been increasing
for five decades, only an immediate and sharp decrease
would significantly affect population levels.
Some analysts predict that continued
high levels of immigration will revitalize what they
say is
an aging population base.
But in an interview with Dr. Camarota, he told me
that immigration has only a small effect on slowing the
aging of American society.
As detailed in the report, if the current level of
net immigration is sustained (1.25 million a year), 61
percent of the nation’s population will be of working
age (15-66) in 2060, compared to 60 percent if net
immigration were reduced to 300,000 a year.
And if net immigration were doubled to 2.5 million a
year it would raise the working-age share of the
population by one additional percentage point, to 62
percent, by 2060. But at that level of immigration, the
U.S. population would reach 573 million, double its size
in the 2000 Census.
The report’s finding are based on the
Census Bureau’s middle range assumptions about
future birth and death rates, including a decline in the
birth rate for Hispanics, who comprise the largest share
of immigrants.
What gets lost in the immigration
debate is that if immigrants come to America for a
better life, which they obviously do, in the process
they become consumers of
social services,
cars and
parking spaces, hospital beds,
water and
classroom seats.
When population increases, America’s
ecological footprint—the human demand on nature’s
resources—is negatively impacted.
The enormous population increases projected by the
CIS report have different implications depending on
where you live. If you reside in the already overcrowded
urban areas of
Los Angeles or
San Francisco, little land is available for more
building.
But if you live in the
San Joaquin Valley, then vast amounts of
agricultural land would be lost as more homes are
built for the
expanded populace.
Lodi’s population, based on the report, will
increase from today’s 60,000 to 94,000
Sustainable growth is a
vitally important goal that should be included in
any discussion about immigration.
Of the four variables that effect
population growth—immigration, migration,
births and deaths—only immigration can be
controlled, assuming a
vigorous federal policy existed to limit the numbers
of people arriving.
Politicians find discussions about immigration
restriction
distasteful. But if manageable growth is a goal,
sensible immigration policies must be developed and
followed.
Joe Guzzardi [email
him], an instructor in English
at the Lodi Adult School, has been writing a weekly
column since 1988. It currently appears in the
Lodi News-Sentinel.
